via: Bespoke
July 5, 2009
July 4, 2009
July 3, 2009
July 2, 2009
Baltic Dry Index Stuck in a Holding Pattern
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, economicsLeave a Comment
July 1, 2009
| Contracts | $221,177,641,981 | |
| Grants | $237,027,203,718 | |
| Loans | $63,771,782 | |
| Insurance | $2,062,647,048 | |
| Direct Payments | $41,687,210,164 | |
| Other Assistance | $37,345,915,84 |
—————————————————————————————————————————————————-
| 1 | LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION | $20,362,164,557 |
| 2 | THE BOEING COMPANY | $14,730,265,990 |
| 3 | NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION | $8,672,131,373 |
| 4 | GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION | $7,794,041,496 |
| 5 | RAYTHEON COMPANY | $5,951,997,077 |
| Full and open competition | $74,518,880,162 | |
| Full and open competition, but only one bid | $21,071,240,217 | |
| Competition after exclusion of sources | $38,011,891,048 | |
| Not competed | $67,224,311,077 | |
| Not available for competition | $9,200,570,874 | |
| Follow-on to previous contract | $2,299,950,265 | |
| Unknown | $8,850,798,337 |
source: usaspending.gov
July 1, 2009
via: Bespoke
June 29, 2009
June 28, 2009
June 27, 2009
via: Bespoke
June 27, 2009
October 29, 2008
Democrats or Republicans; Who’s better for Wall Street?
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, by Walid N., economics, financeLeave a Comment
Los Angeles Finance Examiner: Democrats or Republicans; Who is really better for Wall Street?
Contrary to popular belief and applied assumption Democrats are the historical victors to the claim ‘better for Stock Market’.
Since 1929, both parties have held the Presidency for approximately 40 years each. According to ‘The New York Times’ and data from ‘Bloomberg’, during this period the consolidated returns for the S&P under Republican rule give a gain of only 0.4%. If you exclude the 30’s crash under Hoover, Republican reign produces a gain of 4.7%, still far below the compounded rate of 8.9% produced by their Democratic counterpart. Over that time a theoretical $10,000 investment in the S&P over Democratic rule would have grown to over $300,000. Under Republican rule the same $10,000 investment would be just over $51,000 today…and putting Hoover back in the mix dwindles your return leaving you with only $11,733.
Some will point out that there are countless factors in the production of Market Returns and the validity of such data are nominal at best. While this is understood, no one should discount 40 years of consistent historical data.
A more technical look is given by Yale and Jeffrey Hirsch in the ‘Stock Trader’s Almanac’ showing a Dow Jones industrial $10k investment compounded during Democratic reign since 1901 would have grown to over $279k after 48 years. The same $10k investment during 56 Republican years would be worth just over $78k. The dull glimmer of Republican reign comes with the appearance of inflation. Adjusted for inflation your 10k investment under the Dem’s would be just over 33k compared to 26k under Republicans. Democrats still fare better but the margin between is greatly reduced.
The research takes new light when running the same test against GDP. A similar pattern emerges as Democratic Presidents produced a 5.4% GDP growth, contrasted by the Republicans 1.6%. .
Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov, finance professors at UCLA, decided to further test the above theory using weighted portfolios and broad based indexes. According to their paper, entitled, “The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market”, published in the October issue of the ‘Journal of Finance’, stock market returns are on average about 5 percent higher when the White House is run by a Democrat than during Republican rule.
According to the UCLA professors reduction in volatility was also affected positively under Democratic rule. Between 1927-1999, the study shows broad based indexes returning an average of 11% annually over 3-month Treasury’s under Dem’s as opposed to the Republicans 2% average. Controlled portfolios (value (1) & equal weighted (2)) under the UCLA study also validated the theory of Democrats being better for the Stock Market than Republicans. On average, over 72 years, the value-weighted portfolio returned 9% more, and the equal-weighted portfolio 16% more, under Democrats than Republicans.
The Irony in all of this is that it may be the myth that Republicans are better for the market that causes Democratic linked market gains to be so much greater.
Investors buy into the Republican-market myth and start off with ‘pain on the brain’ when a Democrat is elected. This results in lower expectations early but euphoric surprise by democratic policies and economic improvement, thus leading to reactive involvement and sustainable market up-trends throughout the course of a term(s).

The same pattern is also displayed when comparing Democratic vs. Republican controlled Houses.
Democratic controlled houses also fare better than Republicans, though it should be noted that having one party, either Democrat or Republican, controlling both houses is most favorable to the markets…one house one party is disliked and grafts a history of negative returns
charted data sourced from bloomberg financial markets
(1) ‘value-weighted portfolio’ ranks stocks in index according to total market value. (2) ‘equal-weighted portfolio’ ranks all stocks the same.
Sources: ‘The New York Times’, ‘Bloomberg Financial Market’, & ‘Journal of Finance’
Posted using ShareThis
November 12, 2008
One Economic Indicator Worth Tracking
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, by Walid N., economics1 Comment
Los Angeles Finance Examiner: One Economic Indicator Worth Tracking

Economists and Traders will find that most market indicators relying on forecasts are worthless in our present environment. Unemployment, inflation, consumer confidence, GDP… the data of traditional economic indicators are lagging.
One of many flaws is that the information is aged by weeks, sometimes even months, by the time reporting is done.
A better gauge used to monitor Global Markets is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI is involved with the cost of shipping major raw materials and tracks brokered price quotes for moving goods from around the world.
A move up on the index means global trade is increasing and vice versa. Global economic activity ultimately influences the equity markets so heavy moves in the BDI often predict and precede like moves in the equity markets.
economic principles of supply and demand…
1.)The supply of cargo ships is limited. It takes years to build a new cargo ship and the high costs prohibit docking during periodic downturns.
2.) The index tracks the cost of shipping raw materials instead of intermediate or finished goods thus providing a precise measurement on the volume of global trade at its earliest stages.
3.) The number of ships in operation is not affected by changes in cargo rates…so even the slightest variance in demand results in changes to the index.
Plus
- BDI is a real index and devoid of speculation as the index is not tradable.
- BDI is the only indicator with “real-time” updates…thus increasing its value.
- BDI is measured in a way that makes manipulation almost impossible.
- Reliable Data… BDI is not revised on a monthly or quarterly basis.
If you’re looking for clear indication of a market bottom keep an eye on the BDI for a reversing trend.
*The following is to be taken as market commentary and general observation. It is in no way to be taken as advice or personal recommendation.
Posted using ShareThis
November 26, 2008
LA Finance Examiner: Bull/Bear Ratio: A Contrarian Indicator
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, by Walid N., financeLeave a Comment
Los Angeles Finance Examiner: Bull/Bear Ratio: A Contrarian Indicator
The Bull/Bear ratio, a market indicator popular with insiders, is a poll of investment professionals that gauges whether they are bullish, bearish, or neutral on the stock market. The weekly publication by Investor’s Intelligence is considered the most relevant measure of market sentiment as participants have daily dealings within the financial markets.
The ratio shows the relationship between bullish and bearish advisers and is interpreted to be a contrarian indicator, since extremes in either direction are signals of a reversing market trend.
High readings of the Bull/Bear Ratio are bearish and low readings are bullish.
The theory behind using this indicator is that people tend to be bullish after they buy, and bearish when they sell. So if the BB ratio were to register an extreme bullish reading it would be considered a reflection of an unhealthy level of buyers over sellers and would make for a biased and uneven market place, which by contrarian views would be set for a correction.
A rising trendline means bullish sentiment is outpacing bearish sentiment. The 2.00 area is associated with bullish extremes and market tops, and the 0.60 area with bearish extremes and market bottoms.
According to Investors Intelligence, “Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines.”
*The following is to be taken as market commentary and general observation. It is in no way to be taken as advice or personal recommendation.
chart source: Investors Intelligence
Posted using ShareThis
December 18, 2008
LA Personal Finance Examiner: Commercial Real Estate…the next bust?
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, by Walid N., economicsLeave a Comment
LA Personal Finance Examiner: Commercial Real Estate…the next bust?

In the last year we have bore witness to economic corrections resulting in the folding of a housing market, a credit lockup, a failing financial sector, a recent oil pop, insurance and rating agency scandals, forced redemptions, unseen VIX levels…..etc. etc. etc.
In light of the Holiday season it seems newest data being watched is that of the retail sector . With knowingly weak, and worsening, consumer spending numbers one would expectedly be led to question the stability of an already weakening Commercial Real Estate Market.
With dropping sales, and corporate restructuring, many stores, restaurants, cafes, etc. are closing up shop. This has already been seen on a wide scale, be it from the cafe downsizing announcement by Star-bucks or the bankruptcy filings from such large lot stores as Linens ‘n’ Things.
The instability of Commercial Real Estate has already begun its downtrend as commercial vacancies rise dramatically leaving some regions with vacancy rates of 15-20%.
A main danger inherent in Commercial Real Estate is that closing businesses are sometimes “Anchor” stores; those who are a main pulse and attraction of an individual center. Thus the closing of a store in some cases will seal the fate for an entire shopping complex.
It is also common for newer retailers to have ‘anchor’ clauses built into the lease stating that if a designated ‘anchor’ store closes then they may choose to terminate their lease as well. This can be an expected multiplier to the down-trending market as it compounds the speed at which retailers vacate the complex
The National Association of Realtors official CROE report is summarized by saying: “The fundamentals in commercial real estate are feeling the stress of a slowing economy and troubled credit markets. Job growth, particularly in office-using industries, has been declining. Vacancy rates are expected to rise in all sectors due to decreased demand. The financial decline is squeezing credit availability for commercial projects. As a result, transaction activity is down over 50 percent compared with last year.”
Chart Source:globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Disclosure: Frequent positions in SRS, URE, IGR
*The following is to be taken as market commentary and general observation. It is in no way to be taken as advice or personal recommendation.
Posted using ShareThis
January 28, 2009
LA Finance Examiner: ‘Money for Nothing’ – Financial Humor
“The recent collapse of some of the most venerable names on Wall Street has wreaked havoc on shareholders. On CEO’s….not so much. Hoofy and Boo take a look at how today’s golden parachutes are looking shinier than ever”
Source: www.minyanville.com
Posted using ShareThis
January 12, 2009
Madoff: the Ponzi Scheme Explained
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, by Walid N., economics, news1 Comment
In recent months all walks of investor life , ‘those of the world’ and those outside – looking in, have been astonished at the latest mess to come forth from a dismantled banking sector.
The Bernard Madoff Ponzi Scheme: 
- Madoff is a Wall St. Money Manager who swindled an alleged $50 billion…..the largest Wall St. swindle known to date.
- Bernie Madoff was a co-founder of Nasdaq, a former Chairman of the NASD , and Founder and owner of Madoff Securities.
- Investors affected by scheme range from Charities and Universities -t0- Celeberities and fellow Wall Streeters.
…So what is a Ponzi Scheme?
- Named after Charles Ponzi. In 1919 Charles conned thousands of New Englanders into investing into a stamp speculation scheme
- Fraudulently promises to pay a high percentage of return for little risk.
- The scheme generates returns by paying old investors with the cash flow from new investors.
- Fraud can only continue if there is a continuios flow of new investor money.
CBS Video: How Much Did Madoff Family Know?
January 23, 2009
Bank Destruciton Depicted
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, economics, finance, newsLeave a Comment
Below is a visualization depicting the recent Market Value evaporation of our banking institutions.

source: Bloomberg
| Market Value, $Bn | ||||
| INSTITUTION | 07 MV | 09 MV | % LOST |
|
| Morgan Stanley | 49 | 13.7 | 72% | |
| Credit Agricole | 67 | 20 | 70% | |
| Credit Suisse | 75 | 22 | 71% | |
| Deutsche Bank | 76 | 12 | 84% | |
| Societe Generale | 80 | 19 | 76% | |
| Barclays | 91 | 7 | 92% | |
| Unicredit | 93 | 24 | 74% | |
| Goldman Sachs | 100 | 28 | 72% | |
| BNP Paribas | 108 | 26 | 76% | |
| Santander | 116 | 53 | 54% | |
| UBS | 116 | 29 | 75% | |
| RBS | 120 | 6 | 95% | |
| HSBC | 215 | 82 | 62% | |
| JP Morgan | 165 | 68 | 59% | |
| Bank of America | 228 | 33 | 86% | |
| Citigroup | 255 | 15 | 94% |
February 5, 2009
‘Charting the Market’
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, by Walid N., economics, financeLeave a Comment
- Chart illustrates regression-trend across 137 years.
- 2000 peak was 152% above trend doubling the peak of 1929.
- Index has been above trend for 17 years.
- Market price is currently hovering at 5% above the regression line
Disclosure: Author frequently holds both long and short positions in the S&P
*The following is to be taken as market commentary and general observation. It is in no way to be taken as advice or personal recommendation.
WNasserdeen@yahoo.com
‘Where are the Markets Headed?…You be the Judge’
February 12, 2009
Via Bespoke Group:
“The New York Times published an article this weekend highlighting that the current 10-year stretch that ended last month was the worst for the S&P 500 in at least the last 82 years. The Times looked at total returns for the S&P 500, and below we provide a similar analysis of the 10-year rolling price change of the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back to 1910. As shown, there have only been four other periods where the 10-year return has been negative, and three of the four periods saw returns float around the negative to flat line for quite some time. While it may have taken ”buy-and-holders” a few years to end up making money if they got in early when the 10-year returns went negative, they did end up making money.”
“When looking at 10-year returns, however, where the market was 10 years ago is just as big of a factor as where it is now. Ten years ago, the market was just about to hit the peak of the Internet bubble, and once it burst, the 10-year return was destined to take a big hit right about now.”
“Below we highlight a hypothetical 10-year return chart going out to 2012 if the Dow were to stay right at its current level. As shown, the return would continue to get negative and drop all the way to -29.49% in January 2010 before finally starting to head higher. And even if the Dow stayed the same, it would end up turning positive again by late 2011, since the market had fallen so much by late 2001. If the market gets worse in the next couple of years, the 10-year returns are going to get worse. But even if the market heads sharply higher from here, the 10-year returns will still be negative to flat until we get past 2010.”
February 21, 2009
The Credit Crisis Explained by Jonathan Jarvis
via: crisisofcredit.com
February 23, 2009
Stimulus or Bailout?…Perception is Everything
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, by Walid N., economicsLeave a Comment
Whether discussing corporate greed, rampant government spending, rising unemployment, regulatory systems, or any of the other recent headlining debates it all leads to the divided discussion on today’s resulting Government involvement.
…are they doing to much?….to little?
…should they stay out of the way and let the markets correct themselves or quit with the side stepping politics and take real action before further irreparable damage is done?
etc. etc. etc.
These days the debates are endless.
The most recent discussions to fill our airwaves and coffee shops is that of the new administrations handling of our global economic collapse and the unprecedented actions in spending, control, and involvement they have taken.
Stimulus or Bailout?…Perception is Everything
…presented below are illustrations of opposing views on the recent rise in Gov.’t spending
Stimulus: Illustration of Economic Impact.
Bailout: Illustration of Individual Cost. (data uses family of 2 making 65k annually)
…whether you view these actions from the side of cost or product (implied impact); the money has been allocated, and will be spent. We can now only monitor and examine the ‘Bang for our Buck’ and look forward with the hope that our monetary sacrifice will serve its intended purpose.
image sources: recovery.org , right.org
March 26, 2009
What is the State of the Economy?
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, economics, newsLeave a Comment
LA Finance Examiner: What is the State of the Economy?
“Leading indicators — As in January, two of the three leading indicators are outside of the typical range, indicating unstable markets. However, it’s important to note that the three-month trend of all three indicators are pointing towards the typical long-term range. February readings for TED Spread and OAS were slightly higher than in January, suggesting a slight tightening in the credit markets.
Lagging indicators — All four lagging indicators – including Mortgage Delinquencies, which reached a new high in December – are trending away from the typical range, confirming the challenging economic state. As their name implies, these indicators tend to lag behind the leading indicators.”
>
source: Russell Investments
May 7, 2009
Bailout Out Recipient’s Lobbying Activity
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, newsLeave a Comment
via : ritholtz.com
The following is a chart of TARP/Bailout receivers recent lobbying activity:
| Bailout Recipient | Lobbied | Spent on Lobbying 1Q | Bailout Funds Received |
| American Express (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card, Exec Comp | $875,000 | $3.4 billion |
| Bank of America (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card, Exec Comp | $750,000 | $52.5 billion 4.5 billion |
| Bank of NY Mellon (PDF)* | Credit Card, no response | $497,000 | $3 billion |
| Barclays PLC & US Affiliates (PDF)* | Cramdown, Credit Card | $1,435,916 | $7.0 billion |
| Capital One Financial Corp (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card, Exec Comp | $469,000 | $3.6 billion |
| Citigroup | Credit Card, Exec Comp | $1,680,000 | $50 billion |
| Credit Suisse (PDF)* | Cramdown | $580,000 | $.4 billion |
| Deutsche Bank* | Cramdown | $220,000 | $6.4 billion |
| Discover Financial Services (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card | $257,500 | $1.2 billion |
| Fifth Third Bancorp (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card | $31,000 | $3.4 billion |
| GMAC (PDF) | Cramdown | $410,000 | $5 billion |
| Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card, Exec Comp | $1,105,000 | $10 billion $12.9 billion |
| HSBC GR-Corp (PDF)* | Cramdown, Credit Card | $1,176,573 | $3.3 billion |
| ING North America (PDF)* | Cramdown | $720,000 | $1.5 billion |
| JP Morgan (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card, Exec Comp | $1,386,000 | $25 billion |
| Morgan Stanley & Co (PDF) | Cramdown, Exec Comp | $645,000 | $10 billion $1 billion |
| PNC Bank (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card | $150,000 | $7.6 billion |
| UBS Americas, Inc (PDF)* | Cramdown | $70,000 | $1.7 bilion |
| U.S. Bancorp (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card, Exec Comp | $255,000 | $6.6 billion |
| Wells Fargo & Company (PDF) | Cramdown, Credit Card, Exec Comp | $810,000 | $25 billion |
| TOTAL | $13,522,989 | $220 billion |
Source:
Bailout Recipients Spent $13 Million Lobbying Against Consumers in 1Q 2009 – Jane Hamsher
via : ritholtz.com
May 10, 2009
Consumer Confidence Down In The Dumps
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, newsLeave a Comment
“With consumer confidence at its lowest levels since the sixties, retailers’ registers just aren’t ringing. Join Hoofy and Boo as they take a look at the current state of retail.”
Source: www.minyanville.com
May 23, 2009
Consumer Mood Moving From Negative to Mixed
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, financeLeave a Comment
May 25, 2009
co-author on article briefing the expansions of social engagement as a form of corporate advertising.
Confronting Change: The Next Generation of Advertising
May 29, 2009
Why Are Long-Term Rates Going Up?
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, economicsLeave a Comment
- Long-term rates are going up because traders are getting nervous about future inflation.
- Long-term rates are going up because traders are realizing that the world’s big economies will need to issue trillions of dollars of new debt to pay for all their deficit spending…and there’s just not enough dumb money in the world.
source: TheBusinessInsider
May 30, 2009
BRIC Markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China) continue to out pace ‘developed markets’ in 2009
Source: Bespoke
June 2, 2009
June 15, 2009
June 18, 2009
Source: Casey’s Charts
June 24, 2009
via: Bespoke
June 25, 2009
June 26, 2009
1. Independent Thinking
Thoughts impact actions, people who want to be wealthy should think in a way that will get them to that goal.
2. Vision
Become a creative visionary with a positive attitude.
3. Skills
concentrated on your area of excellence. Partner with others to supplement weakness.
4. Passion
enjoying your work allows you to have the discipline to work hard at it every day.
5. Investment
Willingness to take a risk now for the opportunity of achieving something greater in the future.
6. Salesmanship
The ability to communicate with people is essential to selling your idea.
source: 6 Millionaire Traits That You Can Adopt by Stephanie Powers via Yahoo Finance
June 23, 2009
Recent Country Stock Market Performance
Posted by W.N. Nasserdeen under Business, newsLeave a Comment
via: Bespoke
June 26, 2009
via: Bespoke


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