via: Bespoke
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Gold Closing in on 20% Above 200-Day Moving Average
Gold’s move over the past couple of months has been pretty incredible but not without precedent. As shown in the first chart below, the most recent leg up for gold has put it at 19% above its 200-day moving average. In the second chart, we highlight the historical 200-day moving average spread for gold. As recently as 2006 and 2008, the 200-day spread moved well above 25%, and back in 1980, the spread briefly got up to 136%! Gold is definitely overbought right now, enough so that the risk/reward tradeoff in the short-term is probably favoring the risk side. However, it has gotten much more overbought in the past than it is now, so it could still go higher before correcting.
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Most and Least Heavily Shorted Russell 1,000 Stocks
End of October short interest figures were recently released by both the NYSE and Nasdaq, and below we highlight the stocks in the Russell 1,000 with the highest and lowest short interest as a percentage of float. For the major indices as a whole, short interest is at two-year lows (see our recent short interest report at Bespoke Premium), but there are still plenty of individual stocks that are heavily shorted.
As shown below, Barnes & Noble (BKS) is the Russell 1,000 stock with the highest percentage of its float sold short (45.4%). Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) ranks second with 40.61% of its float sold short, followed by DIRECTV (29.29%), Alliance Data (25.98%), and KB Home (25.1%). Other notables on the list of heavily shorted stocks include First Solar (FSLR), NetFlix (NFLX), SunPower (SPWRA), and AIG. With the markets up significantly this year, it’s not surprising to see that most of the highly shorted stocks are up big as well. Unless you’ve just taken a short position on these names, it has likely been a rough ride over the past few months.
Wesco Financial (WSC) gets the prize for the least shorted stock in the Russell 1,000 with just .22% of its float sold short. Mega-cap names like Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, AT&T, and Cisco are all on the list, as investors don’t see much reward for going short these names. It’s also very surprising to see Bank of America (BAC) on the list of least heavily shorted stocks.
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Bespoke’s Model Portfolio
For those wondering which stocks we like at any given time, the Bespoke Model Portfolio at Bespoke Premium is where to find them. Since inception in May 2007, our Model Portfolio is down 3%. Over the same period of time, the S&P 500 is down 28%. A $100,000 investment in the Bespoke portfolio is now worth $97,000, while a $100,000 investment in the S&P 500 is now worth just $72,000. A few of the big winners in the Portfolio this year include Apple, which we added at a price of $87, Google (added at $333), Nordstrom (added at $22.10), and Goldman Sachs (added at $87 and removed today). Obviously there have been stocks that have gone down in the Portfolio, but we are always able to limit downside risk by setting stop prices on every position. These stop prices helped limit losses during the bear market, and they also don’t allow you to get “attached” to stocks. Our cash position in the Portfolio essentially shows our “macro” view of the overall market as well.
Today we added eight new stocks to the Bespoke Model Portfolio. To view these new additions and also begin receiving our renowned Premium research reports, click here to subscribe to Bespoke Premium today.
Amazon.com Bubble 2.0?
While we’re on the topic of stocks, take a look at a historical chart of Amazon.com (AMZN). After breaking to all-time highs following its recent earnings report, the stock hasn’t looked back and has pretty much gone vertical. The steepness of the increase in Amazon.com’s share price since last November definitely brings back memories of its rise during the late 90s Internet bubble. Hopefully the memories of its subsequent fall don’t reappear as well.
Can Exxon Mobil (XOM) Break Out Of Its Range?
As the biggest stock in the world, Exxon Mobil’s stock performance significantly impacts the cap-weighted indices that it is in. The stock has basically been trading in a range from about $65 to $75 since May, so it hasn’t been one of the names really leading the S&P 500 higher over the last six months. Exxon is currently testing the top end of its recent sideways trading range, however, and a break above the $75 level could provide a nice spark for both XOM shares and the S&P as a whole. If Exxon really gets going and forms a new uptrend, the major indices should have no problem closing out the year at their highs.
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Roubini Says Don’t Forget About Me
Yesterday, Meredith Whitney went on CNBC and said she hasn’t been this bearish in a year. Ignoring the fact that we don’t remember her ever really turning bullish in the first place, Whitney believes that the “recent market rally is not rooted in fundamentals and the U.S. economy is likely to fall back into recession next year.” With Whitney getting all the headlines today as the biggest bear on the street, Nouriel Roubini is out upping the ante. In a New York Daily News column today, he says that the “worst is yet to come” and that “the damage will be extensive and severe unless bold policy action is undertaken now.”
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